AN ECONOMIST CALLS ITS SHOTS

A: Yes. Developing country GDP growth reached 5.6% in 2000, a sharp recovery from the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, with all developing regions seeing higher growth.

A: Yes. CBOT volume fell to 254M contracts in 1999 from 280M in 1998, and LIFFE volume dropped 38% to 96M contracts from 155M in 1998.

A: No. Beyond Germany and a pre-existing UK presence (Asda, acquired 1999), Wal-Mart never entered any other European market. It exited Germany in 2006 at a ~$1-3B loss and sold Asda in 2021.

A: No. It caused roughly 250 minor glitches in 75 countries but nothing major. Clinton's Y2K czar said leap day was "quieter than New Year's Day."

A: Yes. Putin won in the first round on March 26, 2000 with 53.4% of the vote, buoyed by public approval of his tough stance on Chechnya.

A: Yes. The elections were repeatedly postponed before finally being held on May 21, 2000 (first round) and July 9, 2000 (second round).

A: Yes. Gore and Bush posted dominant Super Tuesday victories on March 7; McCain dropped out shortly after, and Bush clinched the nomination by March 14.

A: No. Putin attended as a full participant — his first G8 summit as president. Western leaders criticized Chechnya policies but did not exclude Russia.

A: No. The referendum never took place. Disputes over voter eligibility caused indefinite delays, and no vote has been held as of 2025.

A: Yes. Vicente Fox (PAN) won with 43% on July 2, 2000, defeating PRI's Labastida (36%) and ending 71 years of continuous PRI rule.

A: Republicans kept the House (221-212), but the Senate split 50-50 and effectively changed to Democratic control in June 2001 when Senator Jeffords left the GOP.

A: No. The Shepherdstown talks (Jan 2000) and Clinton-Assad Geneva summit (March 2000) both collapsed. Assad died in June 2000, ending all momentum.

A: No. Israel never returned any part of the Golan. The U.S. recognized Israeli sovereignty over it in 2019, and Israel expanded its presence further after Assad's fall in 2024.

A: No. The disputes proved intractable in 2000, the Syrian civil war made talks impossible, and no agreement exists as of 2025.

A: Yes. The talks collapsed in early 2000, Assad died in June, and 25 years later there is still no deal. The prediction of delay was correct, though the implied eventual deal never materialized.

A: Asia's per capita GDP growth during 2000-2010 averaged roughly 5-6% (China ~9%, India ~5%), significantly exceeding the prediction of 4%. The rich world (OECD) averaged approximately 1.2-1.5% per capita growth. The prediction was directionally correct but actually underestimated Asia's performance.

A: Eastern Europe saw strong growth in the 2000s (4-6% annually before 2008). Latin America also improved, averaging roughly 3-4% during 2003-2008, compared to a volatile 1990s. Both regions benefited from economic liberalization.

A: Yes. From 2000 to 2020, emerging markets that embraced reforms (China, India, Vietnam, Poland) consistently grew faster than advanced economies. China averaged ~9%, India 6-7%, while the US averaged ~2%.

A: Yes. The CDU's poll ratings dropped sharply, Kohl resigned as honorary chairman, and CDU leader Wolfgang Schaeuble also resigned. The SPD won state elections in Schleswig-Holstein (February 2000) and North Rhine-Westphalia (May 2000).

A: Yes. Putin won in the first round with approximately 52.9% of the vote, defeating Zyuganov (29.2%) and Yavlinsky (5.8%).

A: No. Putin systematically dismantled the oligarchs' political power: Berezovsky and Gusinsky were exiled in 2000-2001, Khodorkovsky imprisoned in 2003. Putin replaced them with his own siloviki network from the FSB and St. Petersburg.

A: No. Putin pursued the Second Chechen War to its brutal conclusion, installing the Kadyrov dynasty as proxies. While Russia cultivated some ties with Muslim-majority states, this never meaningfully constrained his Chechnya policy.

A: Partially true early on but ultimately false. Putin initially cultivated Western ties and supported the US after 9/11, but increasingly chose confrontation: 2008 Georgia war, 2014 Crimea annexation, 2022 Ukraine invasion.

A: Yes. Only minor, isolated glitches were reported. The February 29, 2000 leap-day transition also passed without major incident.

A: Houston did not fully meet EPA ozone standards by 2007 but was never stripped of federal highway funding. The EPA granted repeated deadline extensions and the threat was never enforced.

A: No. Gore dominated the 2000 Democratic primary, defeating Bill Bradley decisively. Gore did not run short of funds; Bradley was the one who struggled financially and dropped out on March 9, 2000.

A: Not significantly. Bush won California on March 7, 2000 decisively with ~60% to McCain's ~35%. While McCain rattled Bush in New Hampshire and Michigan, California was not where he posed a serious threat.

A: Yes. Greenspan was confirmed on February 3, 2000 by an overwhelming 89-4 vote for his fourth term as Fed Chairman.

A: Yes. The 'Greenspan put' concept was widely recognized. The dot-com bubble peaked in March 2000 with the NASDAQ reaching 5,048 before crashing nearly 80%. Confidence in Fed intervention contributed to excessive risk-taking.

A: Yes. The NASDAQ crashed from 5,048 in March 2000 to ~1,114 by October 2002, a loss of ~78%. The severity was amplified by excessive speculation enabled by confidence in the Greenspan put.

A: Yes. Super Tuesday was March 7, 2000, and McCain suspended his campaign on March 9. However, it was not over by February — McCain defeated Bush in New Hampshire on February 1, extending the contest.

A: Partially. Nominations were decided by Super Tuesday (March 7), but voters were not denied their surprise — McCain's New Hampshire upset and subsequent wins in Michigan and Arizona provided genuine drama.

A: Yes. McCain won New Hampshire on February 1, generating enormous media coverage. He sustained his campaign through Super Tuesday (March 7) before withdrawing on March 9.

A: Yes. The 2000 campaign featured significant negative campaigning from both sides, with Bush attacking Gore's credibility and Gore attacking Bush's competence.

A: No. McLachlin's tenure (2000-2017) was widely regarded as activist, with landmark rulings striking down laws on assisted suicide (Carter v. Canada, 2015), prostitution (Bedford v. Canada, 2013), and Senate reform.

A: Cardoso made some limited concessions, including a pay increase for military personnel in 2000. He largely maintained civilian control but eased tensions.

A: Yes. Alvares was replaced in January 2000, just weeks after the article was published, succeeded by Geraldo Quintao. The change was widely seen as a concession to ease military tensions.

A: Yes. Zapatista autonomous municipalities (caracoles, formalized in 2003) remained fiercely independent, rejecting federal aid, while non-Zapatista areas received increased government investment. Zapatista zones remained among Mexico's poorest.

A: No. Labastida lost to Vicente Fox (PAN) on July 2, 2000, who won with ~43% vs Labastida's ~36%, ending 71 years of PRI rule.

A: Yes. Costa Rica's GDP growth dropped from 8.2% in 1999 to 1.8% in 2000 and 1.1% in 2001. The one-time boost from Intel ramping up faded and the global tech slowdown hurt further.

A: Yes. By the 2010s-2020s, high-tech exports (medical devices, semiconductors, IT services) far surpassed traditional agricultural exports. Intel operated there 1998-2014 (manufacturing) and other tech firms followed.

A: No. There was no significant challenge at the May 2000 UMNO party elections. The Anwar Ibrahim faction had been purged, and no serious rival emerged.

A: PAS initially benefited from the Anwar crisis (winning Terengganu in 1999), but its support did not continue growing. Its conservative Islamic positions alienated moderates, and it lost Terengganu in 2004.

A: Yes. Maulana Masood Azhar, released in the hijacking deal, founded Jaish-e-Mohammed in early 2000, which carried out the 2001 Indian Parliament attack and became one of the deadliest militant groups in Kashmir.

A: Yes. Masood Azhar founded Jaish-e-Mohammed in January 2000, which carried out numerous attacks. Terrorism escalated through 2000-2001, culminating in the Indian Parliament attack (December 2001).

A: Yes. The PA and UNP did not cooperate on peace talks. Meaningful cross-party cooperation did not materialize until the UNP won elections in December 2001 and initiated the 2002 ceasefire.

A: Yes. Niyazov's plans consistently failed. Turkmenistan remained dependent on gas exports with Russia controlling pipelines. Living standards did not improve as promised by 2010. Niyazov died in 2006 with plans unfulfilled.

A: No. Despite US and Turkish backing, the pipeline faced Russian opposition, Caspian legal disputes, and competition from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz field. As of 2025 it remains unbuilt.

A: Yes. The 2001 insurgency in Macedonia raised the specter directly. Kosovo's 2008 independence reignited the debate. Albanian politicians have periodically raised unification themes with significant public support.

A: Yes. The coalition amended the constitution in November 2000, transforming Croatia from semi-presidential to parliamentary system, significantly reducing presidential powers.

A: Yes. The EU quickly began Stabilisation and Association Agreement negotiations in May 2000. The SAA was signed in 2001, a stark contrast to Tudjman-era isolation.

A: Yes. After losing the February 2000 presidential election, Granic and moderates left to form the Democratic Centre (DC) party. The hardline nationalists and moderates could not coexist.

A: Yes. Even when HDZ returned to power under Ivo Sanader in 2003, it had reinvented itself as center-right pro-European. Croatia joined NATO in 2009 and the EU in 2013.

A: Yes. Putin won with 52.9% in the first round. Primakov withdrew entirely in early February 2000. The election was largely a formality given Putin's overwhelming popularity.

A: Yes. Putin pursued economic modernization while systematically curtailing democratic freedoms — bringing media under state control, eliminating gubernatorial elections, suppressing opposition. A textbook case of authoritarian modernization.

A: Yes. The SPD retained Schleswig-Holstein (February 2000) and won North Rhine-Westphalia (May 2000). The Kohl scandal severely damaged CDU in both.

A: No. Angela Merkel became party leader in April 2000, using the crisis to renew the party. The CDU won state elections by 2001-2003 and Merkel became Chancellor in 2005 — just five years after the scandal.

A: Yes. The MPC raised the base rate by 25bp to 5.75% on January 13, 2000, following increases in September and November 1999 — the third rise in five months.

A: Yes. Rates reached 6.0% by February 2000. UK GDP growth in 2000 was approximately 3.8%. The rate prediction was accurate.

A: No. Sterling remained relatively strong, particularly against the euro. This inflationary channel did not materialise. Interest rates rose due to domestic demand, not a weakening pound.

A: The labour market was tight (unemployment ~5.4%) but wage inflation remained moderate at 4-4.5%. A dramatic wage-price spiral did not materialise.

A: Yes. Rates rose from 5.5% to 6.0% by February 2000. UK productivity growth was modest and did not experience US-style 'new economy' gains.

A: SEN numbers did rise and became a significant policy issue, leading to the 2014 Children and Families Act. However, mainstream schooling adapted incrementally rather than being existentially threatened.

A: Yes. Dewar's government replaced upfront tuition fees with a graduate endowment scheme, substantially addressing the Cubie recommendations to keep the Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition intact.

A: No. The Dome attracted only ~6.5 million visitors against a target of 12 million, ran persistent financial deficits, and remained deeply unpopular throughout 2000. It was one of the biggest public policy embarrassments of the era.

A: Yes. Medical tests in January 2000 concluded Pinochet had suffered brain damage. Home Secretary Jack Straw ruled him unfit on March 2, 2000, and Pinochet returned to Chile on March 3.

A: Yes. Guei attempted to rig the October 2000 presidential election, triggering a popular uprising that overthrew him. He was killed during a failed coup attempt in September 2002.

A: No. No peace settlement was reached (Israel withdrew unilaterally from Lebanon in May 2000). Hezbollah (Shia, not Sunni) emerged as the dominant militant force. The predicted Sunni restiveness did not clearly materialise.

A: No. The assassination of Rafik Hariri in 2005 galvanised the Sunni community and the March 14 movement. Sunnis remained a major political force through the Future Movement.

A: No. Despite acquiring Hong Kong Telecom for ~$38 billion in 2000, the dot-com bust devastated PCCW. It became a Hong Kong-focused telecom provider, not a global Internet giant.

A: Yes. South Korea, Japan, and Hong Kong became world leaders in broadband penetration by the early 2000s, often surpassing the US. Newer infrastructure, government policy, and density all contributed.

A: Yes. GM's net income declined from ~$6 billion in 1999 to ~$4.5 billion in 2000, with costly buyer incentives eroding margins.

A: Smith did step down, but Rick Wagoner became CEO in June 2000, not Harry Pearce. The prediction was correct about retirement but wrong about the successor.

A: Yes. GM's market share declined steadily through the 2000s despite massive spending on incentives, ultimately contributing to its 2009 bankruptcy.

A: Yes. GM's US market share fell from ~28-29% in 2000 to ~20% by 2009 when it filed for bankruptcy. New products largely failed to stem the tide.

A: Yes. The Tax Reform Act 2000 passed in July 2000 — the most sweeping overhaul in decades. The top corporate rate was cut from ~40% to 25% and capital gains tax on cross-held shares was eliminated.

A: No. Germany entered a significant slowdown in 2001-2002 (the 'sick man of Europe'). GDP growth was near zero and corporate profits were weak despite the tax cuts.

A: Yes. Deutsche Bank, Allianz, Munich Re and others progressively sold stakes in industrial companies. The traditional 'Deutschland AG' model gradually dissolved over the 2000s.

A: Yes. Foreign ownership of DAX companies increased substantially. Notable acquisitions included Vodafone's takeover of Mannesmann (2000). The bank-centered governance model weakened significantly.

A: Initially competitive pressure increased, but Vietnam adopted a 'China plus one' strategy and joined the WTO itself in 2007. Vietnam became one of the fastest-growing economies in the region rather than being permanently disadvantaged.

A: Neither extreme materialized. Vietnam opened economically, joined the WTO in 2007, and achieved rapid growth, but the Communist Party maintained firm control. Economic liberalization coexisted with authoritarian rule.

A: Not via the Internet specifically, but the broader prediction about newcomers proved prescient — Tesla (founded 2003), Rivian, Lucid, NIO, and BYD all entered. The mechanism was different (EVs and software, not Internet sales portals).

A: No. The traditional dealer-inventory model persisted. Most cars continued to be built to stock. True build-to-order remained niche. The entrenched dealer franchise system resisted transformation.

A: Consolidation occurred (Fiat-Chrysler merger, PSA-FCA into Stellantis) but was driven by overcapacity and electrification, not Internet-bred impatience. The Quandts kept BMW independent. The predicted mechanism was wrong.

A: Ifil did merge into Exor (2009) and Fiat was rescued via Chrysler merger (2009-2014) under Sergio Marchionne, but these had nothing to do with an Internet portal. The causal mechanism was entirely wrong.

A: Outsourcing to suppliers like Magna increased, and contract manufacturers built entire vehicles for some brands. But most major makers retained substantial in-house manufacturing. The trend partially materialized but reversed after supply chain disruptions revealed risks.

A: Yes. Between-country income inequality declined substantially since 2000, primarily driven by rapid growth in China and India. The first quarter-century strongly supports the prediction's direction.

A: Yes. Brown was fired as CEO in March 2003 after stock collapsed by 70%+, revenue stagnated, and a disastrous Navy contract drained resources. His tenure was marked by poor strategic vision.

A: The halving target was met ahead of schedule, driven by East Asia (especially China). Africa's poverty fell more than 'barely budge' (57% to 41%). Eastern Europe saw poverty rise in the 1990s but decline in the 2000s. Largely correct on overall halving and Asian concentration but somewhat wrong on Africa and Eastern Europe.

A: Yes. The Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness (2005) formalized principles of country ownership and donor alignment. While implementation was imperfect, the directional shift was real.

A: Yes. The NASDAQ peaked at 5,048 on March 10, 2000, and fell ~78% to 1,114 by October 2002. The S&P 500 fell ~49%. Trillions in market value were destroyed.

A: Yes. US CPI inflation for 2000 was approximately 3.4%, the highest since 1996, driven substantially by surging oil prices.

A: Yes. The Fed raised rates three times in the first half of 2000, from 5.50% to 6.50%, citing concerns about overheating rather than being lulled by tame core inflation.

A: No. Open had limited success and never achieved widespread popularity. BSkyB wound down the services by 2003. Internet banking via PCs overtook it entirely.

A: No. South Korea made significant progress developing its bond market. Inter-dealer broker systems gained traction after regulatory reforms. Korea's bond market became one of the more developed in Asia.

A: South Korea did implement mark-to-market accounting but phased it in gradually rather than all at once. The government was cautious about timing but ultimately carried through the reform.

A: Automated defenses advanced significantly (AI-based detection, cloud security) but cyberattacks grew far more sophisticated. The offense-defense balance arguably tilted toward attackers. Cybersecurity remains extremely challenging.

A: Yes. The NASDAQ fell 78% by October 2002. The Dow fell ~38% and the S&P 500 lost ~49%. Major blue chips like GE, Cisco, and Intel were decimated.